Japan can achieve 90% clean power share by 2035, US study finds

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TOKYO - A decline in the cost of solar, wind and battery storage means Japan can get 90 per cent of its power from clean electricity by 2035, a study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, backed by the US energy department, showed on Wednesday (March 1).

The study also finds Japan's power grid, with extra battery storage and inter-regional transmission lines, can remain reliable without coal generation or new gas-fired power plants.

The Group of Seven countries, including Japan, committed last year to largely decarbonise their power sectors by 2035 to tackle climate change, but Tokyo has yet to map out a clear path for the goal.

Resource-poor Japan faces a significant energy security risk as it imports nearly all of the fuel used in its power sector.

Clean electricity – which includes generation from solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, hydrogen and nuclear sources – accounts for 24 per cent of the total.

The study finds raising the share to 90 per cent would cut electricity costs by six per cent and power sector emissions by 92 per cent from 2020 levels.

But it also said clear policies, such as setting medium-term targets beyond 2030 and corresponding renewable deployment goals, were required to take advantage of the economic, environmental, and energy security benefits.

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The study is based on modelling using the latest cost data on renewables and batteries, and is consistent with Japan's 2030 policy goals and the G7 commitment.

Japan aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 46 per cent by 2030 versus 2013 levels by boosting renewable energy in its electricity mix to 36 to 38 per cent, double 2019's levels, and nuclear power to 20 to 22 per cent from 2019's six per cent.

The world's fifth-biggest emitter also aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Under the scenario with the least-cost combination of generation, storage and transmission, renewable power, including floating offshore wind, totals 70 per cent of the electricity mix by 2035, with nuclear and gas-fired power accounting for 20 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, while existing coal power plants are phased out, the study said.