TOKYO — Japanese lawmakers will decide on Nov 11 whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains the country's leader after his scandal-tarnished coalition lost its parliamentary majority in a Lower House election in October.
Ishiba, who called the snap poll after coming into office on Oct 1, is expected to prevail, as his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito won the biggest block of seats in the election, while losing the majority held since 2012.
Even so, Ishiba then faces the prospect of running a fragile minority government as protectionist Donald Trump regains control in Japan's main ally the United States, tensions rise with rivals China and North Korea, and public pressure mounts at home to tackle a cost of living crunch.
The small opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has emerged as a kingmaker after the election, declining to enter a formal coalition with the LDP but saying it may offer support on a policy-by-policy basis.
In a sign of the challenges Ishiba may face in pushing through his policy agenda, DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki told reporters on Nov 8 that party members would not vote for Ishiba at Nov 11's special parliamentary session.
"Until now, the LDP and Komeito have been able to push their policies through, and they are no longer able to do that, they have to listen to the opposition parties," he said.
Former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, the head of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, the biggest party after the LDP, is expected to be among the candidates put forward as premier.
If, as expected, no candidate wins a majority initially, a run-off between the top two contenders will determine the winner. Such a run-off has not been held in 30 years, underlining the fragility of Japan's leadership.
Japan will hold elections in 2025 for the less-powerful Upper House, where the ruling coalition's slim majority could also be at risk if Ishiba cannot revive public trust in his administration, which has been roiled by a scandal over unrecorded donations to lawmakers.
The most imminent challenge he faces is compiling a supplementary budget for the fiscal year through March, under pressure from voters and opposition parties to raise spending on welfare and measures to offset rising prices.
Ishiba also has a slate of international engagements, including a summit of the Group of 20 big economies in Brazil on Nov 18 and 19. He is trying to arrange a stopover in the US around the G-20 summit to meet Trump.
Some Japanese officials fear that Trump might again hit Tokyo with protectionist trade measures and revive demands for it to pay more towards the cost of stationing US forces in the country.
These issues were largely smoothed over in Trump's first term, from 2017 to 2021, by the close ties between the president and Japan's then Premier Shinzo Abe — a bond Ishiba seems keen to re-establish.
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