Are HDB upgraders really priced out of a condo in 2024? Here’s a reality check

The tried and true way of getting a condo is to start with an HDB BTO flat, save every penny you can, and eventually sell it for a tidy profit and move up to a private condo; or at the very least an EC. But with private home prices higher than ever these days, does the old method still work? We took a look at the realities of upgrading to a condo, in the 2024 Singapore property market.

Disclaimer: Since we’re at the start of 2024, we’ll be relying on 2023 prices to determine private property affordability.

Scenario 1: Upgrading a three-bedder

Most HDB upgraders are families, so they have no use for shoebox apartments or small two-bedders. As such, it is fair to say that they will need at least a three-bedder condo unit, which is typically in the 900 to 1,100 sq. ft. range. That is, something that isn’t a massive drop in size from a four-room flat (which is around 970 sq. ft. by the way). You do have some three-bedder condos that go even smaller, but those usually come with common bedrooms that can only fit a single bed (and don’t even think about a utility or yard).

One option here is to look at Executive Condominiums (ECs).

First, let’s look at how much an upgrader may get for a typical four-room flat. For this example, we are going to assume our upgraders bought their four-room flat sometime in 2013, as BTO flats. We assume an average time of four years for construction, and then 10 years before selling and upgrading. This is the most common timeline we tend to see among upgraders:

Average 4-room BTO flat prices

Flat prices would have been around $256,000, as new flats back in 2013. 

Project	Median Price
Anchorvale Horizon	$592,500
Anchorvale Isles	$602,500
Boon Lay Grove	$548,500
Boon Lay Meadow	$525,000
Buangkok Vale	$562,500
Fernvale Crest	$550,000
Fernvale Foliage	$575,888
Fernvale Palms	$565,000
Fernvale Ridge	$540,000
Floral Spring	$525,000
Limbang Green	$500,000
Montreal Dale	$522,000
Montreal Ville	$525,000
Orchid Spring @ Yishun	$525,500
Punggol Crest	$581,888
Punggol Ripples	$608,000
Punggol Sails	$633,000
Rivervale Arc	$532,500
Segar Grove	$527,500
Segar Vale	$517,944
Sembawang RiverLodge	$530,000
Treegrove@Woodlands	$576,944
Yishun Riverwalk	$536,000
Median	$540,000

After around a decade, the same four-room flats could fetch around $540,000 on the resale market.

Let’s take a look at the numbers involved if this flat is sold to upgrade. Note that the following doesn’t factor in CPF usage for simplicity’s sake (because if CPF was used to pay for the flat, there’s an added factor: the seller would have to refund the CPF monies used, including the accrued interest. This can lead to much less of the sale proceeds being left over in cash.)

 

 

Item	Amount
Purchase Price	$256,000
Downpayment (10per cent)	$25,600
HDB Loan Taken	$230,400
Loan remaining after 10 years	$164,036

 

Item	Amount
Sale Price	$540,000
Less loan remaining	-$164,036
Less agent fees	-$10,800
Cash Remaining	$365,164

$365,000 is available to fund their EC purchase. This is important for the down payment of the EC.

(As an important aside, note that there are no HDB loans for ECs, you must use a bank loan, so the first five per cent of the EC must be paid in cash – it’s not like HDB where it’s possible to use CPF entirely for the down payment). 

Next, we’ll assume our upgraders have a combined income of $10,394 per month (that’s assuming a median income of $5,197 per month, for a dual-income family. Don’t blame us if you disagree, it’s what the news reports claim). 

Assuming our upgraders can get the full 30-year loan tenure, and factoring in the TDSR limit (this caps your monthly loan repayments to 55 per cent of your monthly income, inclusive of other debts), our upgraders can borrow $1,108,667 for their EC purchase; and this means the maximum price on their EC is around $1,478,223.

(Note: we’re assuming they don’t have other debt obligations like car loans, personal loans, etc., which could lower the TDSR ceiling for them. Also, note that our upgraders are pushing things to the limit. In practice, we would suggest you try to keep the debt to about 30 per cent of your monthly income, so do save more money if you can). 

Their cash from their sale proceeds ($365,164) is roughly enough to cover the remaining down payment of the EC (a minimum down payment of 25 per cent, as we’re using a bank loan).

Based on the above, what are some of the three-bedroom ECs our upgraders could buy?

Project Name	Min Price	Avg Price	Max Price	Shortfall/Excess From Min Price	Shortfall/Excess From Avg Price
1 Canberra	$1,050,000	$1,172,273	$1,220,000	$428,223	$305,950
Arc at Tampines	$1,125,000	$1,305,407	$1,533,000	$353,223	$172,816
Austville Residences	$1,200,000	$1,302,533	$1,500,000	$278,223	$175,690
Bellewaters	$1,200,000	$1,345,755	$1,458,000	$278,223	$132,468
Bellewoods	$1,090,000	$1,212,727	$1,330,000	$388,223	$265,496
Belysa	$1,088,000	$1,302,750	$1,418,000	$390,223	$175,473
Ecoplitan	$1,100,000	$1,275,935	$1,400,000	$378,223	$202,288
Esparina Residences	$1,450,000	$1,607,894	$1,850,000	$28,223	-$129,671
Forestville	$1,150,000	$1,194,667	$1,240,000	$328,223	$283,556
Heron Bay	$1,150,000	$1,287,000	$1,338,000	$328,223	$191,223
Inz Residence	$1,250,000	$1,250,000	$1,250,000	$228,223	$228,223
Lake Life	$1,313,100	$1,446,748	$1,588,000	$165,123	$31,475
Lush Acres	$1,150,000	$1,289,654	$1,500,000	$328,223	$188,569
Nuovo	$1,150,000	$1,150,000	$1,150,000	$328,223	$328,223
Parc Life	$1,060,000	$1,309,942	$1,490,000	$418,223	$168,281
Park Green	$1,155,000	$1,155,000	$1,155,000	$323,223	$323,223
Prive	$1,300,000	$1,441,158	$1,658,000	$178,223	$37,065
Riverparc Residence	$1,233,000	$1,349,991	$1,500,000	$245,223	$128,232
Sea Horizon	$1,270,000	$1,305,000	$1,380,000	$208,223	$173,223
Signature at Yishun	$1,128,000	$1,259,936	$1,408,888	$350,223	$218,287
Simei Green Condominium	$960,000	$985,000	$1,010,000	$518,223	$493,223
Skypark Residences	$1,250,000	$1,407,315	$1,488,888	$228,223	$70,908
Sol Acres	$1,150,000	$1,351,581	$1,568,000	$328,223	$126,642
The Amore	$1,140,000	$1,285,998	$1,466,888	$338,223	$192,225
The Brownstone	$1,150,000	$1,266,253	$1,560,000	$328,223	$211,970
The Canopy	$970,000	$1,060,833	$1,260,000	$508,223	$417,390
The Criterion	$1,062,670	$1,209,432	$1,385,000	$415,553	$268,791
The Eden at Tampines	$1,110,000	$1,110,000	$1,110,000	$368,223	$368,223
The Esparis	$1,160,000	$1,160,000	$1,160,000	$318,223	$318,223
The Rainforest	$1,178,888	$1,378,148	$1,550,000	$299,335	$100,075
The Tampines Trilliant	$1,398,000	$1,523,164	$1,700,000	$80,223	-$44,941
The Terrace	$1,120,000	$1,350,976	$1,588,888	$358,223	$127,247
The Topiary	$1,020,000	$1,290,413	$1,430,888	$458,223	$187,810
The Vales	$1,110,000	$1,325,196	$1,499,000	$368,223	$153,027
The Visionaires	$1,030,000	$1,312,708	$1,500,000	$448,223	$165,515
Treasure Chest	$1,270,000	$1,469,645	$1,688,000	$208,223	$8,578
Twin Fountains	$1,270,000	$1,278,750	$1,290,000	$208,223	$199,473
Twin Waterfalls	$1,175,000	$1,373,542	$1,568,000	$303,223	$104,681
Wandervale	$1,220,000	$1,406,828	$1,580,000	$258,223	$71,395
Waterbay	$1,320,000	$1,379,200	$1,440,000	$158,223	$99,023
Watercolours	$1,000,000	$1,164,111	$1,350,000	$478,223	$314,112
Waterwoods	$1,285,000	$1,358,571	$1,420,000	$193,223	$119,652
Whitewater	$1,068,000	$1,162,286	$1,208,000	$410,223	$315,937
Yew Mei Green	$955,000	$1,010,296	$1,040,888	$523,223	$467,927
Total	$955,000	$1,331,444	$1,850,000	$523,223	$146,779

There are quite a few options above, so making the jump to an EC is quite possible; although again, we’d suggest you save up more first, and not push the TDSR to its very limit.

What about upgrading to fully private condos?

This is frankly tougher in 2024, and we have to keep it to resale condos to make it realistic. We’ll explain this below. For now, here are the cheapest resale three-bedders we can find:

Project Name	Transacted Price ($)	Area (SQFT)	bedroom	Unit Price ($ PSF)	Sale Date	Tenure
Hougang Green	$900,000	1,163	3	774	3 Jan 2023	99 yrs from 01/12/1994
Hougang Green	$918,000	1,130	3	812	21 Aug 2023	99 yrs from 01/12/1994
Rosewood Suites	$980,000	1,098	3	893	12 Jan 2023	99 yrs from 25/02/2008
Crystal Lodge	$980,000	1,152	3	851	17 May 2023	Freehold
Regent Grove	$1,040,000	1,163	3	895	30 Jan 2023	99 yrs from 17/05/1997
Evergreen Park	$1,050,000	1,173	3	895	3 Mar 2023	99 yrs from 01/10/1995
Regent Grove	$1,050,000	1,163	3	903	7 Jun 2023	99 yrs from 17/05/1997
Regent Grove	$1,050,000	1,163	3	903	29 Dec 2023	99 yrs from 17/05/1997
Skies Miltonia	$1,058,800	969	3	1,093	13 Feb 2023	99 yrs from 20/02/2012
Symphony Suites	$1,058,888	915	3	1,157	2 Mar 2023	99 yrs from 10/06/2014
Flo Residence	$1,060,000	926	3	1,145	5 Jun 2023	99 yrs from 05/12/2011
Symphony Suites	$1,068,000	$893	3	1,195	14 Sept 2023	99 yrs from 10/06/2014
Symphony Suites	$1,070,000	915	3	1,169	11 October 2023	99 yrs from 10/06/2014
Regent Grove	$1,075,000	1,163	3	925	1 Mar 2023	99 yrs from 17/05/1997
Hedges Park Condominium	$1,080,000	1,001	3	1,079	21 Feb 2023	99 yrs from 28/07/2010
Nine Residence	$1,080,000	904	3	1,194	2 May 2023	99 yrs from 30/04/2013

The only freehold development on the list is Crystal Lodge, which is not actually a condo (it’s an apartment so there are no common facilities). It’s also too close to the Geylang vice area, and is frankly more of a rental asset than a family home. 

The other projects are okay, but they tend to be far from MRT access, or are quite old. So our upgraders do need to temper their expectations. 

Nonetheless, let’s cast a wider net, and look at private, non-landed three-bedders in various planning areas:

Area	Min	Avg	Max	Shortfall from Min	Shortfall from average
Ang Mo Kio	$1,418,000	$2,178,301	$2,638,000	$60,223	-$700,078
Bedok	$1,180,000	$1,765,506	$2,381,000	$298,223	-$287,283
Bishan	$1,420,000	$2,047,220	$2,550,000	$58,223	-$568,997
Bukit Batok	$1,100,000	$1,558,985	$1,981,000	$378,223	-$80,762
Bukit Merah	$1,760,000	$2,172,104	$2,946,760	-$281,777	-$693,881
Bukit Panjang	$1,500,000	$2,005,468	$2,320,000	-$21,777	-$527,245
Bukit Timah	$1,758,000	$2,663,116	$3,583,597	-$279,777	-$1,184,893
Choa Chu Kang	$1,040,000	$1,107,083	$1,250,000	$438,223	$371,140
Clementi	$1,350,000	$1,863,736	$2,608,800	$128,223	-$385,513
Downtown Core	$2,400,000	$2,679,166	$3,012,000	-$921,777	-$1,200,943
Geylang	$980,000	$1,887,128	$2,508,000	$498,223	-$408,905
Hougang	$900,000	$1,639,116	$2,338,800	$578,223	-$160,893
Jurong East	$1,198,000	$1,541,000	$1,910,000	$280,223	-$62,777
Jurong West	$1,220,000	$1,604,344	$2,080,000	$258,223	-$126,121
Kallang	$1,352,888	$1,704,745	$2,780,000	$125,335	-$226,522
Marine Parade	$1,720,000	$2,434,410	$3,271,550	-$241,777	-$956,187
Museum	$2,575,000	$2,649,167	$2,828,000	-$1,096,777	-$1,170,944
Newton	$2,863,000	$3,093,370	$3,300,000	-$1,384,777	-$1,615,147
Novena	$1,150,000	$2,810,511	$4,046,000	$328,223	-$1,332,288
Outram	$2,445,888	$2,931,537	$3,314,880	-$967,665	-$1,453,314
Pasir Ris	$1,080,000	$1,363,854	$1,770,000	$398,223	$114,369
Punggol	$1,060,000	$1,344,494	$1,680,000	$418,223	$133,729
Queenstown	$1,570,000	$2,030,514	$2,560,000	-$91,777	-$552,291
River Valley	$1,800,000	$2,384,543	$2,906,800	-$321,777	-$906,320
Rochor	$1,586,000	$1,745,808	$2,400,000	-$107,777	-$267,585
Sembawang	$1,120,000	$1,208,990	$1,298,888	$358,223	$269,233
Sengkang	$1,118,000	$1,419,492	$1,860,000	$360,223	$58,731
Serangoon	$1,280,000	$1,864,338	$2,150,000	$198,223	-$386,115
Singapore River	$2,350,000	$3,262,986	$3,680,000	-$871,777	-$1,784,763
Tampines	$1,120,000	$1,542,423	$1,884,000	$358,223	-$64,200
Tanglin	$1,900,000	$2,730,233	$3,579,840	-$421,777	-$1,252,010
Toa Payoh	$1,528,888	$1,970,519	$2,441,000	-$50,665	-$492,296
Woodlands	$980,000	$1,134,000	$1,288,000	$498,223	$344,223
Yishun	$1,058,800	$1,284,464	$1,960,000	$419,423	$193,759
Total	$900,000	$1,952,269	$4,046,000	$578,223	-$474,046

Even if they’re not new launches, you can see the overall quantum of many of these areas is pushing close to $2 million, if the price isn’t there already. There are some areas that may still be viable, such as Choa Chu Kang, Woodlands, and Yishun; and with median income, we think upgraders could also look at Pasir Ris, Punggol, and Sembawang. 

We don’t think the names come as any surprise though, as these are all the old standbys for affordable housing (i.e., they are in less developed areas, where prices are lower). 

That said, just from the above, we can see that it’s definitely more practical for HDB upgraders to look at ECs first. And whilst they’re not entirely priced out of private condos, it is becoming a big reach for them.

If you insist on upgrading to a new launch condo…

Well, it’s true. Upgrading to one is an even tougher prospect in recent months. Ever since the aftermath of Covid, prices of around $2,000+ psf have become a new norm, even for new launches that are in fringe regions:

Project	Average Prices	Shortfall
10 Evelyn	$3,404,883	-$1,926,660
Altura	$1,397,000	$81,223
Atlassia	$2,506,516	-$1,028,293
Bartley Vue	$2,086,818	-$608,595
Blossoms By The Park	$2,557,462	-$1,079,239
Claydence	$2,849,055	-$1,370,832
Cuscaden Reserve	$4,289,000	-$2,810,777
Enchante	$2,971,913	-$1,493,690
Grand Dunman	$3,005,681	-$1,527,458
Hill House	$2,325,857	-$847,634
Ikigai	$3,843,560	-$2,365,337
Ki Residences At Brookvale	$2,393,333	-$915,110
Klimt Cairnhill	$5,357,650	-$3,879,427
Lentor Hills Residences	$2,293,123	-$814,900
Lentor Modern	$2,422,615	-$944,392
Lumina Grand	$1,425,108	$53,115
Midtown Bay	$5,162,250	-$3,684,027
Mori	$2,256,800	-$778,577
North Gaia	$1,296,236	$181,987
One Bernam	$4,257,053	-$2,778,830
Orchard Sophia	$2,285,333	-$807,110
Perfect Ten	$4,759,920	-$3,281,697
Pinetree Hill	$2,907,531	-$1,429,308
Royal Hallmark	$1,949,000	-$470,777
Sceneca Residence	$2,386,814	-$908,591
Sky Eden@Bedok	$2,318,429	-$840,206
Tembusu Grand	$2,801,962	-$1,323,739
Terra Hill	$2,822,679	-$1,344,456
The Arden	$1,939,591	-$461,368
The Botany at Dairy Farm	$2,176,019	-$697,796
The Continuum	$3,102,914	-$1,624,691
The LakeGarden Residences	$2,262,991	-$784,768
The Landmark	$3,155,932	-$1,677,709
The Myst	$2,181,033	-$702,810
The Reef At King’s Dock	$3,060,461	-$1,582,238
The Shorefront	$1,922,200	-$443,977
Grand Total	$2,537,247	-$1,059,024

The average quantum of a new launch three-bedder is around $2.537 million. That would be a stretch even if you just sold an $800,000 flat in Queenstown, let alone a regular four-room flat. 

So if you really want a new launch three-bedder, you need to be making way above median income, or have a huge amount of accrued wealth already (especially for the deposit).

That said, if you want a new launch EC, you could consider North Gaia, Altura, or Lumina Grand. These new ECs have three-bedders that could be in the range of $1.2 million; but remember that for new ECs, you are taking on a five-year MOP all over again, and ECs are only fully privatised after their 10th year. 

So are HDB upgraders priced out of private condos?

We feel the most accurate response – given that upgraders are increasingly restricted to ECs or cheaper resale options – is that they almost are. 

They’re not entirely priced out but we’re more than halfway there, given that new launches are now out of the question for most median-income Singaporeans.

This article was first published in Stackedhomes.

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