Is the best time to sell your new-launch condo before or after completion? Here's what the data says

There has been considerable interest in determining the optimal time to sell your new launch condo, particularly as the supply increases with more condos from recent launches nearing completion.

The debate is straightforward: Should you sell before the condo is completed? Selling early provides quicker access to profits and frees up your name for other potential deals.

Additionally, you may face less competition by selling early, especially if you own a unit in a mega-development.

On the other hand, waiting until the development is completed has its advantages. There may be increased demand from buyers ready to move in, and if the condo exceeds expectations, it could fetch a higher price. However, there's also the risk that build quality issues might emerge, negatively impacting your sale price.

So, is selling early truly more profitable, and how does the timing of your sale affect your returns? We analysed the numbers from several condo sales to find out:

Projects that we used for comparison

For comparison, we used private, non-landed projects that were launched from 2018 onward. We also checked that there were new to resale, as well as new to sub sale transactions for comparison:

Do note that for Avenue South Residence, all transactions so far have been recorded as Sub Sale. However, we modified the data to be "Resale" for the purpose of this analysis as word on the ground was that Avenue South Residence was ready to move in earlier, so we used March 2023 as the date to consider transactions as Resale, rather than Sub Sale.

A look at overall returns

Project	New Sale to Resale	New Sale to Sub Sale	Grand Total	Which is better?	Difference
AMBER 45	+15.1per cent	+6.1per cent	+14.3per cent	Sell After TOP	+9.0per cent
AVENUE SOUTH RESIDENCE	+14.7per cent	+13.7per cent	+14.6per cent	Sell After TOP	+0.9per cent
BUKIT 828	+8.9per cent	-4.6per cent	+2.1per cent	Sell After TOP	+13.6per cent
DAINTREE RESIDENCE	+21.6per cent	+22.2per cent	+22.0per cent	Sell Before TOP	-0.5per cent
FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES	+17.8per cent	+8.4per cent	+9.7per cent	Sell After TOP	+9.4per cent
JADESCAPE	+25.8per cent	+22.0per cent	+23.4per cent	Sell After TOP	+3.8per cent
JUI RESIDENCES	+9.3per cent	+11.5per cent	+9.8per cent	Sell Before TOP	-2.2per cent
KOPAR AT NEWTON	+11.6per cent	+12.7per cent	+12.6per cent	Sell Before TOP	-1.1per cent
MARGARET VILLE	+17.1per cent	+11.1per cent	+16.4per cent	Sell After TOP	+6.0per cent
MAYFAIR GARDENS	+10.3per cent	+9.8per cent	+10.0per cent	Sell After TOP	+0.5per cent
MIDWOOD	+18.4per cent	+20.9per cent	+19.7per cent	Sell Before TOP	-2.5per cent
NYON	+16.3per cent	+13.2per cent	+15.5per cent	Sell After TOP	+3.1per cent
OLLOI	+24.0per cent	+17.5per cent	+20.7per cent	Sell After TOP	+6.5per cent
PARC ESTA	+29.1per cent	+22.7per cent	+24.3per cent	Sell After TOP	+6.4per cent
PARK COLONIAL	+20.8per cent	+15.7per cent	+18.1per cent	Sell After TOP	+5.1per cent
REZI 24	+4.3per cent	+7.3per cent	+6.7per cent	Sell Before TOP	-2.9per cent
STIRLING RESIDENCES	+24.2per cent	+20.1per cent	+22.4per cent	Sell After TOP	+4.1per cent
THE ANTARES	+19.2per cent	+12.9per cent	+16.1per cent	Sell After TOP	+6.3per cent
THE GARDEN RESIDENCES	+13.5per cent	+8.2per cent	+13.2per cent	Sell After TOP	+5.3per cent
THE JOVELL	+22.7per cent	+16.9per cent	+18.5per cent	Sell After TOP	+5.9per cent
THE TAPESTRY	+16.6per cent	+11.6per cent	+15.8per cent	Sell After TOP	+5.0per cent
THE VERANDAH RESIDENCES	+13.3per cent	+10.2per cent	+11.1per cent	Sell After TOP	+3.1per cent
TREASURE AT TAMPINES	+23.5per cent	+21.8per cent	+22.1per cent	Sell After TOP	+1.7per cent
TWIN VEW	+22.6per cent	+17.0per cent	+19.8per cent	Sell After TOP	+5.6per cent
VERDALE	+12.8per cent	+13.9per cent	+13.3per cent	Sell Before TOP	-1.1per cent
WHISTLER GRAND	+30.7per cent	+24.6per cent	+27.4per cent	Sell After TOP	+6.1per cent
Average	+21.3per cent	+19.9per cent	+20.5per cent	Sell After TOP

Overall new to resale transactions came out slightly ahead, which implies it may be better to sell after TOP. However, frankly, the degree of difference is not great.

Of the six projects where selling before TOP was better (i.e., new to sub sale), you can see three of them had only one new to resale transaction, whilst Jui Residences only had two such transactions — this makes it hard to draw any accurate conclusions. Midwood is the most notable of the lot, where waiting to sell after TOP made a difference of 2.5 per cent.

However, we need to consider that prices rose significantly in the aftermath of Covid

Due to the housing shortage right after Covid, home prices rose to new highs. Because of this, we would expect that the new to resale units would perform better; they should have appreciated from more time in the market.

Here are the holding periods for the various transactions:

Project	New Sale to Resale	New Sale to Sub Sale	Grand Total
AMBER 45	4.4 Years	3.2 Years	4.3 Years
AVENUE SOUTH RESIDENCE	4.0 Years	3.1 Years	3.9 Years
BUKIT 828	4.0 Years	1.6 Years	2.8 Years
DAINTREE RESIDENCE	3.7 Years	3.3 Years	3.4 Years
FOURTH AVENUE RESIDENCES	3.6 Years	3.6 Years	3.6 Years
JADESCAPE	4.1 Years	3.7 Years	3.8 Years
JUI RESIDENCES	4.6 Years	3.4 Years	4.3 Years
KOPAR AT NEWTON	4.0 Years	3.6 Years	3.6 Years
MARGARET VILLE	4.4 Years	3.5 Years	4.3 Years
MAYFAIR GARDENS	4.6 Years	4.1 Years	4.3 Years
MIDWOOD	3.2 Years	3.1 Years	3.1 Years
NYON	3.9 Years	3.5 Years	3.8 Years
OLLOI	3.9 Years	2.2 Years	3.1 Years
PARC ESTA	4.3 Years	3.7 Years	3.8 Years
PARK COLONIAL	4.9 Years	3.7 Years	4.3 Years
REZI 24	3.5 Years	4.0 Years	3.9 Years
STIRLING RESIDENCES	4.3 Years	3.6 Years	4.0 Years
THE ANTARES	3.7 Years	3.9 Years	3.8 Years
THE GARDEN RESIDENCES	4.1 Years	3.4 Years	4.0 Years
THE JOVELL	4.2 Years	3.5 Years	3.7 Years
THE TAPESTRY	4.6 Years	3.3 Years	4.4 Years
THE VERANDAH RESIDENCES	5.7 Years	4.7 Years	5.0 Years
TREASURE AT TAMPINES	3.8 Years	3.7 Years	3.7 Years
TWIN VEW	4.9 Years	3.4 Years	4.2 Years
VERDALE	3.6 Years	3.4 Years	3.5 Years
WHISTLER GRAND	4.1 Years	3.5 Years	3.8 Years
Average	4.3 Years	3.7 Years	3.9 Years

Note that for Midwood, the average holding period between new to sub sale and new to resale is not very different. As such, the holding period doesn’t seem to have mattered for this specific condo.

Overall, however, the results are better by around 1.4 per cent, if you wait till after TOP to sell. This comes from a difference of around eight months in the holding period. 

Overall, the results suggest that the timing of this short scale doesn't really have an effect 

Due to factors like the Sellers Stamp Duty (SSD), and the unreliability of finding sub sale buyers, it may be best to stick to a fundamental strategy: buy when you have holding power, and can ride out downturns. 

(The SSD imposes a tax of 12 per cent of the sale price if a unit is sold within the first year of purchase. This decreases to eight per cent and four per cent in subsequent years, which explains why most sub sales occur in the fourth year, after the SSD period). 

Ultimately, the decision usually depends on the specific project. For a luxury new launch condo with fewer competing units and a promising outcome (at least, from what you can see on the outside), waiting might be beneficial.

Buyers in this segment often make emotional purchases and may be willing to pay a premium if they like what they see.

For a mass-market new launch, this may be more timing-dependent. If you bought early while many others purchased later, it might be wise to sell before a large number of listings hit the market.

Even if there's a chance of securing a higher price later, the risk may not be worth it in this scenario.

A final point of consideration: private property prices are starting to rise at a slower pace. It's proving difficult to go past $2,200 psf, and this will have an effect on sub sale transactions. So again, buyers today should ensure they're prepared to stay longer if necessary: you may have to sell much further past the TOP date than you'd expect. 

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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.