Developing Asia to end 2023 on brighter note as China's economy recovers: ADB
Employees work on the production line at Jingjin filter press factory in Dezhou, Shandong province, China, Aug 25, 2022.
PHOTO: Reuters file
PUBLISHED ONDecember 13, 2023 3:24 AM
MANILA — Developing Asia will likely end the year on a brighter note, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday (Dec 13), with growth in the region expected to be stronger than previously thought due mainly to a recovery in China's economy.
The ADB raised its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent projected in September, but kept its growth outlook for the region at 4.8 per cent next year.
The ADB also revised upwards its growth projection for China to 5.2 per cent from 4.9 per cent previously, but maintained its growth forecast for the world's second-largest economy at 4.5 per cent next year.
China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip of 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, supported by a flurry of policy measures that bolstered a tentative recovery.
The ADB said robust domestic demand, stronger remittances, recovering tourism were underpinning economic activity in the region, which consists of 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Outlook for the sub-regions was mixed, with East Asia seen growing faster at 4.7 per cent this year versus the ADB's 4.4 per cent forecast in September, while Southeast Asia was projected to grow at 4.3 per cent, slower than the previous forecast of 4.6 per cent.
South Asia was likewise expected to post stronger growth of 5.7 per cent this year from 5.4 per cent previously, with India's economy seen expanding at a faster clip of 6.7 per cent this year.
Inflation in developing Asia was forecast to ease to 3.5 per cent this year, down slightly from ADB's earlier expectation, before rising slightly to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
|
GDP GROWTH |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2023 |
2023 |
2024 |
2024 |
2024 |
|
JULY |
SEPT |
DEC |
JULY |
SEPT |
DEC |
|||
|
Caucasus and Central Asia |
5.8 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.6 |
|
East Asia |
7.9 |
2.8 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
|
China |
8.4 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
South Asia |
8.4 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
India |
9.1 |
7.2 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
|
Southeast Asia |
3.5 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
|
Indonesia |
3.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
Malaysia |
3.1 |
8.7 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
|
Myanmar |
-5.9 |
2.0 |
n/a |
2.8 |
n/a |
n/a |
3.2 |
n/a |
|
Philippines |
5.7 |
7.6 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
|
Singapore |
8.9 |
3.6 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
Thailand |
1.5 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
|
Vietnam |
2.6 |
8.0 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
The Pacific |
-1.4 |
6.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
|
Developing Asia |
7.2 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
|
INFLATION |
||||||||
|
JULY |
SEPT |
DEC |
JULY |
SEPT |
DEC |
|||
|
Caucasus and Central Asia |
9.0 |
12.9 |
10.6 |
10.6 |
10.9 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
8.4 |
|
East Asia |
1.1 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
|
China |
0.9 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
South Asia |
5.8 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
8.6 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
|
India |
5.5 |
6.7 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
|
Southeast Asia |
2.0 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
|
Indonesia |
1.6 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
Malaysia |
2.5 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
|
Myanmar |
3.6 |
18.4 |
n/a |
14.0 |
n/a |
n/a |
8.2 |
n/a |
|
Philippines |
3.9 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Singapore |
2.3 |
6.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
Thailand |
1.2 |
6.1 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Vietnam |
1.8 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
The Pacific |
3.1 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
Developing Asia |
2.6 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
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