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Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017.
PHOTO: Reuters file

Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.

The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 per cent this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6 per cent.

Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the UK.

A soft-landing for the US is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024

 

GLOBAL

US

CHINA

EURO AREA

UK

INDIA

Goldman Sachs

2.60 per cent

2.10 per cent

4.80 per cent

0.90 per cent

0.6 per cent

6.3 per cent

Morgan Stanley

2.80 per cent

1.90 per cent

4.20 per cent

0.50 per cent

-0.1 per cent

6.4 per cent

UBS

2.60 per cent

1.10 per cent

4.40 per cent

0.60 per cent

0.6 per cent

6.2 per cent

Barclays

2.60 per cent

1.20 per cent

4.40 per cent

0.30 per cent

0.1 per cent

6.2 per cent

J.P.Morgan

2.20 per cent

1.60 per cent

4.90 per cent

0.40 per cent

0.2 per cent

5.7 per cent

HSBC

   

4.90 per cent

     

BofA Global Research

2.8 per cent

1.4 per cent

4.8 per cent

0.50 per cent

0.1 per cent

5.7 per cent

 

US inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)

Federal funds target rate (Dec '24)

 

Headline CPI

Core PCE

 

Goldman Sachs

2.40 per cent

2.60 per cent

5.13 per cent

Morgan Stanley

2.10 per cent

2.70 per cent

4.375 per cent

UBS

2.70 per cent

 

2.75 per cent

Wells Fargo

2.50 per cent

2.60 per cent

4.75 per cent-5.00 per cent

Barclays

2.70 per cent

 

5.25 per cent-5.50 per cent

J.P.Morgan

2.50 per cent

2.50 per cent

4.50 per cent

BofA Global Research

2.80 per cent

 

4.50 per cent-4.75 per cent

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent.

  S&P 500 target US 10-year yield target EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY
Goldman Sachs 4700 4.55 per cent 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4500   1 140 7.5
UBS 4600 3.60 per cent 1.15 130 7.15
Wells Fargo 4600-4800 4.75 per cent-5.25 per cent 1.08-1.12 136-140  
Barclays   4.25 per cent 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan   3.75 per cent 1.13 146 7.15
BofA Global Research 5000 4.25 per cent 1.15 142 6.90
Deutsche Bank 1.10 135      

As of 1301 GMT (9.01pm Singapore time) on Nov 22, 2023:

S&P 500: 4,538.19

US 10-year yield : 4.3712 per cent

EUR/USD : 1.0905

USD/CNY : 7.1498

USD/JPY : 148.74

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