Here's the number of HDB flats reaching minimum occupation period (MOP) and entering Singapore's resale market in 2020 and 2021

Have you noticed the lift at your block being extra slow lately, as movers or renovators keep cramming into it? Or have you seen more strangers walking up and down the corridors of late, peering into nearby flats?

Consider it the result of a record breaking 50,000+ flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) between 2020 and 2021. This is massive when you consider the 10-year average between 2010 and 2018, when only around 9,000 flats reached MOP every year.

We mentioned it in a previous article, where we discussed the resale flat market taking a U-turn .

What’s of interest to most resale flat seekers, however, are the new, five-year old flats that are just now entering the market. These are the most alluring choices if you’re seeking a flat right now, as you can move in immediately, plus the lease decay is practically irrelevant.

Here’s where you might find them:

Why are new flats reaching MOP more desirable than older resale flats reaching MOP?

This is due to the simple fact that HDB flats are on 99-year leases. Flats that are only five years old still have significant resale potential or legacy value. In addition, these flats are likely to be better maintained.

As a further bonus, those who sell their new flats right after MOP are often upgraders; they would have been planning to move out soon after.

They often keep renovations to a minimum, as the flat is transitory to them; this can mean it’s quicker for you to renovate and move in (there are fewer walls, floors, cabinets, etc. to hack up).

On the downside, any new flats reaching MOP in 2020 or 2021 would have been completed in 2015 to 2016; note that these newer flats tend to be smaller than flats built in, say, the 1980’s or 1990’s.

For those wondering, here is the upcoming MOP HDB flats as compared to the HDB supply by HDB estate.

New flats reaching MOP between 2020 to 2021:

Note: The following are estimates only; we have based the numbers on projects completed in 2015 and 2016 (as MOP is calculated from the time of key collection, not the launch date of the BTO project)

We have focused on 3, 4, and 5-room flats as these are the most commonly sought after units.

Again, these are the newest (BTO) flats reaching their 5th year mark; we have not included older resale flats that are reaching their MOP.

1. Bedok (320 units)

2. Bukit Batok (488 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Skyline I @ Bukit Batok	Q2 2016	78	216	194	488

3. Bukit Merah (796 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Depot Heights	Q3 2016	128	176	–	304
Telok Blangah Ridgeview	Q1 2016	96	396	–	492

4. Bukit Panjang (862 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Fajar Hills	Q4 2015	146	392	324	862

5. Choa Chu Kang (6,250 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Sunshine Gardens	Q2 2015	118	788	518	1,424
Keat Hong Pride	Q2 2016	80	656	407	1,143
Keat Hong Axis	Q1 2016	140	520	372	1,032
Keat Hong Quad	Q1 2016	–	334	190	524
Keat Hong Mirage	Q3 2016	114	559	486	1,159
Keat Hong Colours	Q4 2016	136	484	348	968

6. Clementi (962 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Clementi Ridges	Q3 2016	156	312	216	684
Clementi Gateway	Q3 2016	134	144	–	278

7. Geylang (779 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
MacPherson Residency	Q4 2015	211	426	–	637
Greentops @ Sims Place	Q4 2015	142	–	–	142

8. Hougang (1,714 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Capeview	Q1 2015	108	429	244	637
Dew Court	Q1 2015	–	181	–	181
Hougang Park Edge	Q2 2016	136	204	238	578
Hougang Crimson	Q4 2016	104	210	–	314

9. Jurong East (518 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Teban View	Q4 2015	185	333	–	518

10. Kallang / Whampoa (1,970 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Bendemeer Light	Q4 2016	212	412	–	624
McNair Towers	Q4 2016	115	476	–	591
Tenteram Peak	Q4 2016	319	436	–	755

11. Punggol (5,206 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Waterway Terraces	Q1 2015	178	588	306	1,072
Punggol Topaz	Q2 2015	184	542	284	1,010
Waterway Terraces II	Q2 2015	118	440	246	804
Waterway Woodcress	Q1 2015	100	350	244	694
Waterway Brooks	Q3 2015	–	691	465	1,156
Matilda Portico	Q2 2016	–	251	219	470

12. Sembawang (372 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
EastBank @ Canberra	Q4 2016	–	193	179	372

13. Sengkang (6,618)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Fernvale Rivergrove	Q3 2015	484	892	252	1,628
Fernvale Lea	Q3 2015	100	600	350	1,050
Compassvale Boardwalk	Q4 2015	–	252	222	474
Compassvale Mast	Q2 2016	104	465	359	928
Rivervale Delta	Q2 2016	102	425	357	884
Compassvale Cape	Q4 2016	196	588	440	1,194
Compassvale Helm	Q4 2016	–	253	207	460

14. Tampines (804 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Tampines GreenLace	Q1 2016	–	215	165	380
Tampines GreenForest	Q2 2016	160	264	–	424

15. Toa Payoh (248)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Joo Seng Green	Q1 2016	102	146	–	248

16. Woodlands (747 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Woodlands Peak	Q3 2015	95	–	–	95
TreeTrail @ Woodlands	Q2 2016	–	418	234	652

17. Yishun (2,584 units)

Name	Est. Completion Date	3-room	4-room	5-room	Est. total
Acacia Breeze	Q1 2015	108	418	308	834
Oleander Breeze @ Yishun	Q3 2016	160	348	180	688
Vine Grove @ Yishun	Q4 2016	192	324	–	516
Palm Breeze @ Yishun	Q4 2016	96	274	176	546

All in, we estimate that the bulk of new flats entering the resale market (in 2020 and 2021) will be in Sengkang, Choa Chu Kang, Punggol.

As expected, it’s the non-mature areas that are seeing the bulk of five-year old flats. This could see a bigger influx into these areas, if buyers decide that age is a bigger factor than a built-up estate.

About Sengkang

Sengkang is often underrated in terms of amenities. This is mostly a holdover from the early 2000’s, when it was one of the more underdeveloped estates.

Today Sengkang has three malls – Rivervale Plaza, Rivervale Mall, and Compass One Shopping Centre, as well as its own MRT / LRT station; it also benefits from the increased development of the neighbouring Punggol area.

Sengkang’s distinguishing feature is youth – it’s so closely associated with younger families, it was even credited with affecting the last general election .

The abundance of new resale flats in this area is likely to compound the effect: younger Singaporeans are more inclined to seek out these five-year old flats, as they have more need of a longer remaining lease.

As at the time of writing, prices in Sengkang average $429 psf in 2020. This is ever so slightly higher than the average of $427 psf, for all HDB towns island-wide.

About Choa Chu Kang

The reason for Choa Chu Kang seeing such a big number of new resale flats is just a matter of odds. This estate consists of seven sub-zones, from Choa Chu Kang Central to Yew Tee and Teck Whye; this is one of the biggest HDB estates, hence the large number of flats.

Choa Chu Kang still has a ways to go in building up its amenities though; despite its large size, there’s only Lot One and Junction 10 in terms of major retail.

Prices in CCK have been on the up from 2019, averaging $350 psf in 2020 (perhaps it’s even the effect of more five-year old resale flats we’re seeing). This is far below the Singapore-wide average of $427 psf.

About Punggol

Punggol used to be one of the most inaccessible places in Singapore; so many Singaporeans were shocked to realise the extent of the transformation when Piermont Grand (Executive Condominium) launched in 2019.

An EC launching at around $1,107 psf, in supposedly “cheap” Punggol, has since changed perceptions of the area.

Punggol Waterway and Coney Island now make up unique draws, which rival Bukit Timah in terms of outdoor amenities. Punggol is, in fact, Singapore’s first designated eco-town, with Punggol Waterway and Tree Trail @ Punggol being the first “sustainable waterfront towns”.

The prospect of waterfront living might also draw buyers to the newly HDB MOP flats in the area.

This is all down to the fruition of the Punggol 21 Plus plan, which dates back to 2007 .

The five-year old flats here are in a sweet spot: they have a long lease ahead of them, and they were built just as the best parts of waterfront living came about (sadly the older resale flats here had to suffer through more years of limited amenities).

Flat prices in Punggol average $465 psf in 2020, higher than the island-wide average of $427 psf. Like we said, those who still think of Punggol as “ulu budget housing” should revisit the area.

Are you thinking of upgrading to a condo from your flat at some point? The best stepping stone may be a five-year old resale flat .

If you buy a BTO flat, you’ll need to wait three to five years for its completion, before your HDB MOP countdown starts. But buy a resale flat, and you only have five years to wait – you could be upgrading much sooner (or renting out the entire unit much sooner, if you need the added income).

This article was first published in Stackedhomes.