2024 is an important month, coming in at the tail end of the housing supply craze. With home production ramping up in the past two years, and Covid firmly in the rearview mirror, some HDB buyers are hoping for a break — but while the situation is seemingly better, it's hard to say if we'll see lower prices this very year. Here's a look at how things are shaping up so far:
The HDB resale situation in 2024
One of the biggest changes on the resale scene is from the BTO side of the equation. In August last year, the government ended the old system of mature versus non-mature flats; and flats are now classed into Prime, Plus, and Standard. We already have some Prime housing, and 2024 will see the first batch of Plus model flats in the Bayshore area.
Over the coming year, we may see the effect of the new housing model start to sink in. Plus and Prime flats may draw buyers who want a better HDB location, but who have no interest in upgrading*. This could allow some BTO launches to siphon demand from the resale segment.
Conversely, we may see an uptick in prices of flats that are very close to Plus or Prime model launches. This is because nearby flats have the same locational advantages, but don't have drawbacks like a 10-year MOP or Subsidy Recovery (SR) clawbacks.
This aside, OrangeTee and Huttons forecast a three to five per cent increase in average flat prices for 2024, while PropNex places the number at four to five per cent. This is a slower pace of growth compared to the past two years, due to the increased supply.
And as mentioned before, one other possible factor which may cap price growth is the rising interest rates. While HDB loan rates remain the same (2.6 per cent), some buyers are forced to use bank loans instead; these buyers may be increasingly resistant to high prices, given that rates began to approach the four per cent mark in late 2023.
Overall, it's not the huge price drop that some buyers have been hoping for; but buyers are in a slightly better position compared to the immediate aftermath of Covid.
*Upgraders tend to prefer resale flats to BTO flats, as they can upgrade in exactly five years with no construction time.
How 4-room flat prices moved in 2023 non-mature towns
These are how prices have moved in non-mature towns, over the past year:
Non Mature | 2023-H1 | 2023-H2 | |||||
Town | Average Price | Average Age | Vol | Average Price | Average Age | Vol | Change in price |
BUKIT BATOK | $586,602 | 17 | 271 | $587,564 | 16 | 380 | 0.2per cent |
BUKIT PANJANG | $510,619 | 23 | 163 | $518,928 | 24 | 204 | 1.6per cent |
CHOA CHU KANG | $496,403 | 23 | 251 | $506,556 | 22 | 345 | 2.0per cent |
HOUGANG | $531,475 | 27 | 256 | $555,772 | 24 | 425 | 4.6per cent |
JURONG EAST | $477,531 | 35 | 68 | $502,986 | 31 | 74 | 5.3per cent |
JURONG WEST | $487,880 | 26 | 234 | $506,929 | 25 | 363 | 3.9per cent |
PUNGGOL | $584,540 | 10 | 472 | $603,140 | 10 | 587 | 3.2per cent |
SEMBAWANG | $537,371 | 12 | 184 | $549,535 | 11 | 344 | 2.3per cent |
SENGKANG | $564,766 | 14 | 401 | $571,118 | 15 | 624 | 1.1per cent |
WOODLANDS | $487,200 | 23 | 433 | $508,784 | 22 | 525 | 4.4per cent |
YISHUN | $489,008 | 26 | 402 | $505,090 | 25 | 468 | 3.3per cent |
Cheapest 4-room flats categorised by age:
10 years and below
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
CHOA CHU KANG | 803B KEAT HONG CL | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2017 | $400,000 |
WOODLANDS | 780C WOODLANDS CRES | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2015 | $475,000 |
BUKIT PANJANG | 547A SEGAR RD | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2015 | $480,000 |
WOODLANDS | 783A WOODLANDS RISE | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2018 | $480,000 |
BUKIT PANJANG | 550B SEGAR RD | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2015 | $480,000 |
SENGKANG | 164A RIVERVALE CRES | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2017 | $480,000 |
SEMBAWANG | 463B SEMBAWANG DR | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2015 | $480,000 |
WOODLANDS | 782D WOODLANDS CRES | 13 TO 15 | 92 | 2015 | $480,000 |
SENGKANG | 178B RIVERVALE CRES | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2015 | $485,000 |
YISHUN | 333C YISHUN ST 31 | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2015 | $492,000 |
SEMBAWANG | 590B MONTREAL LINK | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2015 | $495,000 |
PUNGGOL | 121B EDGEDALE PLAINS | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2017 | $495,000 |
11 – 20 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
YISHUN | 452 YISHUN RING RD | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2012 | $498,000 |
SEMBAWANG | 510A WELLINGTON CIRCLE | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 2004 | $468,000 |
BUKIT BATOK | 392 BT BATOK WEST AVE 5 | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2004 | $470,000 |
JURONG WEST | 676B JURONG WEST ST 64 | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2008 | $470,000 |
SEMBAWANG | 486 ADMIRALTY LINK | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 2004 | $473,888 |
SEMBAWANG | 509A WELLINGTON CIRCLE | 10 TO 12 | 90 | 2004 | $475,000 |
HOUGANG | 984A BUANGKOK LINK | 10 TO 12 | 85 | 2004 | $478,000 |
PUNGGOL | 171A EDGEDALE PLAINS | 07 TO 09 | 86 | 2004 | $480,000 |
PUNGGOL | 161A PUNGGOL CTRL | 07 TO 09 | 95 | 2004 | $480,000 |
SENGKANG | 207A COMPASSVALE LANE | 10 TO 12 | 92 | 2005 | $486,000 |
WOODLANDS | 12C MARSILING LANE | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2013 | $488,000 |
SENGKANG | 405C FERNVALE LANE | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2004 | $490,000 |
CHOA CHU KANG | 476B CHOA CHU KANG AVE 5 | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2013 | $490,000 |
WOODLANDS | 689D WOODLANDS DR 75 | 10 TO 12 | 90 | 2004 | $490,000 |
JURONG WEST | 675A JURONG WEST ST 64 | 13 TO 15 | 92 | 2008 | $490,000 |
SENGKANG | 406A FERNVALE RD | 07 TO 09 | 90 | 2004 | $491,000 |
SENGKANG | 152 RIVERVALE CRES | 04 TO 06 | 91 | 2005 | $492,000 |
BUKIT BATOK | 384 BT BATOK WEST AVE 5 | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2005 | $495,000 |
BUKIT PANJANG | 630 SENJA RD | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 2004 | $495,000 |
SENGKANG | 150 RIVERVALE CRES | 04 TO 06 | 91 | 2005 | $495,000 |
JURONG WEST | 677B JURONG WEST ST 64 | 10 TO 12 | 90 | 2008 | $495,000 |
SEMBAWANG | 508C WELLINGTON CIRCLE | 07 TO 09 | 90 | 2004 | $496,000 |
PUNGGOL | 172C EDGEDALE PLAINS | 07 TO 09 | 85 | 2004 | $498,000 |
21 – 30 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
WOODLANDS | 428 WOODLANDS ST 41 | 10 TO 12 | 84 | 1996 | $428,000 |
JURONG WEST | 276C JURONG WEST ST 25 | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 2002 | $438,000 |
CHOA CHU KANG | 685C CHOA CHU KANG CRES | 07 TO 09 | 85 | 2002 | $438,000 |
WOODLANDS | 554 WOODLANDS DR 53 | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 1999 | $439,998 |
SEMBAWANG | 407 SEMBAWANG DR | 10 TO 12 | 90 | 2001 | $440,000 |
SENGKANG | 185D RIVERVALE CRES | 13 TO 15 | 85 | 2000 | $440,000 |
SENGKANG | 185B RIVERVALE CRES | 04 TO 06 | 88 | 2000 | $445,000 |
WOODLANDS | 604 WOODLANDS DR 42 | 04 TO 06 | 91 | 1997 | $445,000 |
SENGKANG | 184C RIVERVALE CRES | 07 TO 09 | 85 | 2003 | $446,000 |
JURONG WEST | 275B JURONG WEST ST 25 | 04 TO 06 | 90 | 2002 | $448,000 |
JURONG WEST | 655A JURONG WEST ST 61 | 04 TO 06 | 86 | 2002 | $448,000 |
CHOA CHU KANG | 442 CHOA CHU KANG AVE 4 | 13 TO 15 | 91 | 1997 | $448,888 |
More than 30 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
WOODLANDS | 104 WOODLANDS ST 13 | 04 TO 06 | 91 | 1985 | $350,000 |
WOODLANDS | 7 MARSILING DR | 04 TO 06 | 88 | 1976 | $360,000 |
WOODLANDS | 25 MARSILING DR | 10 TO 12 | 91 | 1977 | $360,000 |
WOODLANDS | 205 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 91 | 1980 | $363,000 |
WOODLANDS | 8 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 88 | 1976 | $368,000 |
WOODLANDS | 26 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 91 | 1977 | $368,000 |
WOODLANDS | 22 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 1977 | $368,000 |
WOODLANDS | 5 MARSILING DR | 16 TO 18 | 90 | 1974 | $370,000 |
WOODLANDS | 27 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 91 | 1977 | $380,000 |
WOODLANDS | 34 MARSILING DR | 10 TO 12 | 98 | 1978 | $384,000 |
WOODLANDS | 201 MARSILING DR | 04 TO 06 | 91 | 1980 | $385,000 |
YISHUN | 280 YISHUN ST 22 | 07 TO 09 | 84 | 1985 | $385,000 |
YISHUN | 408 YISHUN AVE 6 | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1988 | $388,000 |
JURONG EAST | 243 JURONG EAST ST 24 | 04 TO 06 | 94 | 1983 | $390,000 |
YISHUN | 279 YISHUN ST 22 | 07 TO 09 | 84 | 1985 | $390,000 |
YISHUN | 407 YISHUN AVE 6 | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1988 | $392,000 |
HOUGANG | 15 HOUGANG AVE 3 | 13 TO 15 | 82 | 1975 | $393,000 |
BUKIT PANJANG | 236 BT PANJANG RING RD | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1988 | $395,000 |
WOODLANDS | 28 MARSILING DR | 07 TO 09 | 97 | 1977 | $395,000 |
WOODLANDS | 29 MARSILING DR | 10 TO 12 | 97 | 1979 | $396,000 |
Some general observations:
Amongst the oldest flats (30 years or more), Woodlands dominates the list. At $330,000 to $385,000, which is almost as low as some BTO counterparts today, it would seem Woodlands has some of the most affordable flats in Singapore. However, this can give a misleading picture.
However, don’t mistake the abundance of cheaper flats in Woodlands as a sign that Woodlands is as “ulu” as before. Note that in terms of overall price movement, Woodlands is the third highest, seeing a rise of 4.4 per cent between the first and second half of 2023.
This could be a sign of things to come as the development of Woodlands North Coast – and indeed Woodlands as a Regional Centre for the North – continues to unfold. Over the long term, this can provide more room for appreciation.
For those worried about lease decay (i.e., you want a newer flat), Woodlands along with Choa Chu Kang and Bukit Panjang may be good places to look. 4-room flats here are still well below the $500,000 mark, even if they’re less than 10 years old.
Cheapest 4-room flats in mature towns
Mature | 2023-H1 | 2023-H2 | |||||
Town | Average Price | Average Age | Vol | Average Price | Average of age | Vol | Change in price |
ANG MO KIO | $647,715 | 30 | 156 | $649,875 | 31 | 188 | 0.3per cent |
BEDOK | $563,866 | 32 | 207 | $578,993 | 32 | 244 | 2.7per cent |
BISHAN | $687,918 | 33 | 77 | $720,134 | 33 | 116 | 4.7per cent |
BUKIT MERAH | $783,622 | 20 | 182 | $817,967 | 19 | 246 | 4.4per cent |
BUKIT TIMAH | $748,861 | 39 | 8 | $764,975 | 39 | 8 | 2.2per cent |
CENTRAL AREA | $895,772 | 28 | 36 | $929,963 | 28 | 41 | 3.8per cent |
CLEMENTI | $661,292 | 30 | 100 | $679,443 | 30 | 118 | 2.7per cent |
GEYLANG | $612,935 | 33 | 115 | $665,882 | 31 | 126 | 8.6per cent |
KALLANG/WHAMPOA | $729,560 | 24 | 145 | $789,148 | 22 | 149 | 8.2per cent |
MARINE PARADE | $571,750 | 49 | 12 | $569,478 | 49 | 23 | -0.4per cent |
PASIR RIS | $552,917 | 29 | 119 | $577,902 | 28 | 150 | 4.5per cent |
QUEENSTOWN | $844,174 | 16 | 120 | $873,275 | 16 | 141 | 3.4per cent |
SERANGOON | $590,597 | 35 | 80 | $603,247 | 37 | 108 | 2.1per cent |
TAMPINES | $567,490 | 30 | 291 | $584,882 | 30 | 383 | 3.1per cent |
TOA PAYOH | $720,745 | 27 | 76 | $747,118 | 26 | 124 | 3.7per cent |
Cheapest 4-room flat by age
Less than 10 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
TAMPINES | 492G TAMPINES ST 45 | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2018 | $600,000 |
TAMPINES | 869A TAMPINES AVE 8 | 10 TO 12 | 92 | 2015 | $610,000 |
TAMPINES | 879A TAMPINES AVE 8 | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2017 | $630,000 |
PASIR RIS | 526A PASIR RIS ST 51 | 10 TO 12 | 93 | 2015 | $630,000 |
BEDOK | 808C CHAI CHEE RD | 04 TO 06 | 88 | 2016 | $655,000 |
TAMPINES | 871B TAMPINES ST 86 | 04 TO 06 | 94 | 2017 | $660,000 |
TAMPINES | 890A TAMPINES AVE 1 | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2015 | $665,000 |
TAMPINES | 606B TAMPINES ST 61 | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2020 | $675,000 |
BEDOK | 186B BEDOK NTH ST 4 | 04 TO 06 | 93 | 2018 | $690,000 |
11 – 20 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
KALLANG/WHAMPOA | 19 JLN TENTERAM | 04 TO 06 | 85 | 2004 | $608,000 |
KALLANG/WHAMPOA | 18 JLN TENTERAM | 07 TO 09 | 85 | 2004 | $618,000 |
BUKIT MERAH | 109A DEPOT RD | 07 TO 09 | 90 | 2006 | $658,000 |
BEDOK | 183 BEDOK NTH RD | 07 TO 09 | 92 | 2005 | $660,000 |
BUKIT MERAH | 112B DEPOT RD | 19 TO 21 | 100 | 2006 | $662,000 |
BEDOK | 182 BEDOK NTH RD | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 2006 | $667,000 |
ANG MO KIO | 309A ANG MO KIO ST 31 | 07 TO 09 | 90 | 2006 | $678,888 |
TOA PAYOH | 79E TOA PAYOH CTRL | 07 TO 09 | 76 | 2009 | $680,000 |
BEDOK | 185 BEDOK NTH RD | 13 TO 15 | 92 | 2005 | $680,000 |
BEDOK | 180 BEDOK NTH RD | 16 TO 18 | 92 | 2006 | $685,000 |
ANG MO KIO | 316A ANG MO KIO ST 31 | 07 TO 09 | 95 | 2006 | $690,000 |
21 – 30 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
TAMPINES | 346 TAMPINES ST 33 | 07 TO 09 | 109 | 1996 | $485,000 |
TAMPINES | 353 TAMPINES ST 33 | 04 TO 06 | 107 | 1996 | $520,000 |
PASIR RIS | 142 PASIR RIS ST 11 | 04 TO 06 | 108 | 1994 | $520,000 |
TAMPINES | 316 TAMPINES ST 33 | 04 TO 06 | 107 | 1995 | $520,000 |
TAMPINES | 352 TAMPINES ST 33 | 10 TO 12 | 107 | 1996 | $525,000 |
PASIR RIS | 633 PASIR RIS DR 3 | 04 TO 06 | 104 | 1995 | $528,000 |
TAMPINES | 349 TAMPINES ST 33 | 04 TO 06 | 105 | 1996 | $530,000 |
PASIR RIS | 641 PASIR RIS DR 1 | 04 TO 06 | 104 | 1995 | $535,000 |
TAMPINES | 366 TAMPINES ST 34 | 04 TO 06 | 100 | 1997 | $535,000 |
PASIR RIS | 749 PASIR RIS ST 71 | 04 TO 06 | 105 | 1996 | $535,000 |
TAMPINES | 365 TAMPINES ST 34 | 04 TO 06 | 101 | 1997 | $535,000 |
TAMPINES | 361 TAMPINES ST 34 | 07 TO 09 | 107 | 1996 | $535,000 |
PASIR RIS | 744 PASIR RIS ST 71 | 10 TO 12 | 103 | 1996 | $535,000 |
PASIR RIS | 750 PASIR RIS ST 71 | 07 TO 09 | 106 | 1996 | $538,888 |
PASIR RIS | 627 PASIR RIS DR 3 | 04 TO 06 | 104 | 1995 | $540,000 |
PASIR RIS | 148 PASIR RIS ST 13 | 04 TO 06 | 115 | 1995 | $540,000 |
KALLANG/WHAMPOA | 16 JLN TENTERAM | 04 TO 06 | 86 | 2002 | $540,000 |
SERANGOON | 548 SERANGOON NTH AVE 3 | 07 TO 09 | 100 | 1998 | $540,000 |
PASIR RIS | 753 PASIR RIS ST 71 | 07 TO 09 | 105 | 1996 | $542,000 |
TAMPINES | 320 TAMPINES ST 33 | 04 TO 06 | 112 | 1995 | $545,000 |
TAMPINES | 364 TAMPINES ST 34 | 07 TO 09 | 102 | 1997 | $545,000 |
TAMPINES | 741 TAMPINES ST 72 | 07 TO 09 | 101 | 1997 | $548,000 |
PASIR RIS | 771 PASIR RIS ST 71 | 10 TO 12 | 105 | 1996 | $548,000 |
More than 30 years old
Town | Address | Floor Range | Size | Lease Start | Price |
GEYLANG | 35 CIRCUIT RD | 16 TO 18 | 83.1 | 1971 | $350,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 10 TO 12 | 82 | 1976 | $400,000 |
BEDOK | 36 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1977 | $402,000 |
ANG MO KIO | 622 ANG MO KIO AVE 9 | 04 TO 06 | 100 | 1980 | $415,000 |
BEDOK | 34 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 10 TO 12 | 90 | 1977 | $415,000 |
BEDOK | 35 CHAI CHEE AVE | 04 TO 06 | 82 | 1975 | $420,000 |
BUKIT MERAH | 102 HENDERSON CRES | 04 TO 06 | 80 | 1970 | $420,000 |
BEDOK | 41 BEDOK STH RD | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1977 | $420,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 10 TO 12 | 82 | 1976 | $420,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 10 TO 12 | 82 | 1976 | $420,000 |
BISHAN | 25 SIN MING RD | 04 TO 06 | 88 | 1974 | $425,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 226 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 07 TO 09 | 82 | 1976 | $425,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 228 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 16 TO 18 | 82 | 1976 | $425,000 |
BEDOK | 141 BEDOK RESERVOIR RD | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1986 | $428,000 |
CLEMENTI | 510 WEST COAST DR | 07 TO 09 | 83 | 1978 | $430,000 |
BEDOK | 7 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 07 TO 09 | 82 | 1976 | $430,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 13 TO 15 | 82 | 1976 | $430,000 |
BEDOK | 6 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 07 TO 09 | 82 | 1976 | $435,000 |
BEDOK | 37 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 10 TO 12 | 84 | 1977 | $435,000 |
BEDOK | 127 BEDOK NTH ST 2 | 04 TO 06 | 92 | 1978 | $438,000 |
BEDOK | 34 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 13 TO 15 | 90 | 1977 | $439,000 |
BEDOK | 36 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 04 TO 06 | 84 | 1977 | $440,000 |
BEDOK | 52 NEW UPP CHANGI RD | 13 TO 15 | 84 | 1977 | $440,000 |
BEDOK | 53 NEW UPP CHANGI RD | 13 TO 15 | 84 | 1977 | $440,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 219 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 16 TO 18 | 82 | 1978 | $441,800 |
BUKIT MERAH | 23 TELOK BLANGAH CRES | 04 TO 06 | 82 | 1975 | $443,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 227 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 10 TO 12 | 82 | 1976 | $445,000 |
TOA PAYOH | 213 LOR 8 TOA PAYOH | 10 TO 12 | 82 | 1975 | $445,000 |
BEDOK | 704 BEDOK RESERVOIR RD | 10 TO 12 | 102 | 1981 | $448,000 |
CLEMENTI | 712 CLEMENTI WEST ST 2 | 10 TO 12 | 91 | 1980 | $448,888 |
BEDOK | 37 BEDOK STH AVE 2 | 13 TO 15 | 84 | 1977 | $449,888 |
Some general observations:
Tampines does have a lot of fairly new, yet affordable (below $650,000) resale flats; but unsurprisingly, these are not the flats in the most popular part of Tampines (that would be Tampines Central, where the malls and offices are at).
Tampines Street 45 and Tampines Avenue 8 are quite far from the MRT, and the nearest stations are Tampines East or Tampines West on the Downtown Line (unlike Tampines Central with access to the East-West Line).
Nonetheless, if you're not fussy, there's usually a bus connection to the MRT stations, or to Tampines Central (which is accessible from Tampines East and Tampines West also). All in, we'd say it's not a bad deal, for a flat that might be under six years old.
Meanwhile, 35 Circuit Road, in Geylang, has a rather eye-opening transaction of $350,000 for a four-room flat; low given how convenient the location is. It's within walking distance of Mattar MRT (DTL), and local amenities like the hawker centre and market are all a short stroll away.
You can also get to Macpherson MRT (DT/CC) with relative ease. Paya Lebar, a major commercial hub, is also nearby. Perhaps it's just a certain stigma about it being an "old people's area," but it is quite underrated for that price.
The rest of the list can be described as "the usual suspects." We don't think anyone would be surprised to read that Bedok and Pasir Ris are among the more affordable mature areas.
The resale flat market is slowing overall, but areas near Prime and Plus model housing may resist the loss of momentum
As mentioned above, the lack of Plus and Prime restrictions may cause these flats to actually increase in price, at least in the near term. As such, there still isn't much opportunity for first-time or lower-budget buyers, in traditional hotspots like Queenstown or Tanjong Pagar.
If you're dead set on such locations, you may have to do with an older non-central flat for now, and aim to upgrade into these places later on.
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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.