Leadership transition for Singapore complete with strong mandate from GE2025: Analysts

SINGAPORE — The strong mandate Singaporeans gave Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on May 3 settles a leadership succession that began more than a decade ago, said political analysts.

The PAP's 65.57 per cent national vote share is also an endorsement of PM Wong's call for voters to return his experienced ministers while he injects new blood into the Government, and all eyes are now on who will be in the Cabinet, they added.

"The process of political succession from the third prime minister to the fourth prime minister of Singapore — that spanned from 2011 from (Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong's) first mention of the intent to 2025 — is indeed now complete," said Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) senior research fellow Gillian Koh.

Observers such as political scientist Walid Jumblatt Abdullah said how Singaporeans voted means PM Wong has wide latitude to shape his Cabinet: Not only was the PAP's result improved from the last election, he also improved his vote share on his home turf of Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, while Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong prevailed in a hot contest in Punggol GRC.

"It is as resounding a victory as it could be for a new prime minister," said Associate Professor Walid, who is from NTU. "It strengthens his position both in the country and the party."

Given that the PAP argued during the campaign that Singapore faces a troubled external environment, it now has to put together Singapore's leadership team "post-haste", said Dr Koh.

This is especially so as several key ministers will be retiring, such as Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean and Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.

Associate Professor Reuben Wong of NUS' department of political science said PM Wong is facing a shake-up of the international economic and security order. 

These changes fundamentally call into question Singapore's continued viability as a small state, and the most trade-dependent economy in the world, he said.

Dr Koh added that DPM Gan looks set to continue as PM Wong's right-hand man and remain in charge of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce, given that this was the pitch that was repeatedly made to voters.

All eyes will instead be on whom the other deputy prime minister will be from the 4G cohort of ministers, and observers said the shortlist includes Education Minister Chan Chun Sing, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung and National Development Minister Desmond Lee.

Two other heavyweight portfolios will also be closely watched: that of defence and finance.

IPS Social Lab research fellow Teo Kay Key said the Cabinet has to be firmed up ahead of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, which is scheduled from May 30 to June 1.

Singapore's defence minister is the host and convenor of Asia's premier security summit, and has traditionally been a plenary speaker at the event.

The summit is also where Dr Ng meets his counterparts from around the world bilaterally, as well as in larger groups such as under the auspices of the Five Power Defence Arrangements.

Dr Koh said Chan, a former chief of army, is a likely candidate for this post given his experience and knowledge of Singapore's defence philosophy, policies, strategies and his international networks.

Independent political observer Felix Tan said PM Wong, who is currently double-hatting as Finance Minister, may also want to pass this heavyweight portfolio to another member of his team.

The candidates include Chee Hong Tat, who is currently Minister for Transport and Second Minister for Finance.

The upcoming Cabinet reshuffle is likely to be considerable, and could include the promotion of some next-generation leaders to political office, he added.

In May 2024, then DPM Wong had said that he planned to rotate the 4G ministers to different portfolios and give them wider exposure and experience after the general election.

The PAP fielded 32 new candidates for the 2025 General Election, the largest batch of fresh faces in decades, as PM Wong asked voters to give him the best team to steer Singapore through the storms ahead.

During the hustings, he also highlighted how some of the newcomers could grow into larger leadership roles, and name-dropped David Neo from Tampines GRC, Dinesh Vasu Dash from East Coast GRC, and Jeffrey Siow from Chua Chu Kang GRC.

Neo was previously chief of army; Dinesh was formerly chief executive at the Agency for Integrated Care; and Siow was second permanent secretary for trade and industry and manpower and a previous principal private secretary to then PM Lee Hsien Loong.

Others whom the PAP leadership has spotlighted as potential office-holders are former Nominated MP Syed Harun Alhabsyi and Goh Hanyan, who was previously a director at the Ministry of Digital Development and Information.

There are serving senior ministers of state who could be promoted to full ministers, said IPS Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow Tan Ern Ser.

The current senior ministers of state who will be in the 15th Parliament are: Tan Kiat How, Low Yen Ling, Sim Ann, Zaqy Mohamad, Dr Janil Puthucheary, Dr Koh Poh Koon and Desmond Tan.

IPS' Dr Tan added: "Perhaps SM Lee may be upgraded to minister mentor, and the 4G would be fully in charge."

Dr Koh said there could also be changes to who helms the Ministry of Law and Ministry of Home Affairs, which are both currently under K. Shanmugam.

If Shanmugam leaves his law portfolio, the question is whether Edwin Tong — who is Second Minister for Law — could take over. Tong is also Minister for Culture, Community and Youth.

Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan said the election outcome means PM Wong and his team are well placed to manage the pace of political change, even as the desire for a more balanced political system grows.

"The pace and tone of change will be watched as a measure of the confidence and authority (PM) Wong brings to his leadership," he said. "In other words, how he governs will matter immensely."

This article was first published in The Straits Times. Permission required for reproduction.