Singapore's first female DPM? Analysts expect PM Wong to make bold moves in new Cabinet

Promotions and opportunities for political newcomers are expected to be high on Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's agenda as he forms the next Government.

This comes after the People's Action Party (PAP) secured 65.57 per cent of the national vote following the May 3 General Election.

Several political analysts told AsiaOne that major changes are on the cards, pointing to the big mandate that PM Wong secured in his first election as PAP leader.

"Given the overwhelming support he has received from voters, he managed to retain most of his cadre members," said independent political observer Felix Tan.

"He now has the strong mandate to make tough decisions within his party and also will be able to put those that he deems fit into these positions."

On what the next Government might look like, Institute of Policy Studies Social Lab adjunct principal research fellow and academic adviser Tan Ern Ser said that he expects several members of the 3G leadership, such as Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Home Affairs and Law Minister K Shanmugam, as well as Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan to remain in the Cabinet.

But with the retirement of three veterans  —  Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat and Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen  — there is an opportunity for PM Wong to promote one or more senior ministers of state to full or acting ministers, said Dr Felix Tan.

The incumbent senior ministers of state, all from the 4G team, who will be in the 15th Parliament are:

• Sim Ann (Foreign Affairs and National Development)
• Janil Puthucheary (Digital Development and Information, and Health)
• Koh Poh Koon (Manpower, and Sustainability and the Environment)
• Zaqy Mohamad (Defence and Manpower)
• Tan Kiat How (Digital Development and Information, and National Development)
• Low Yen Ling (Culture, Community and Youth, and Trade and Industry)
• Desmond Tan (Trade and Industry, and Prime Minister's Office)

"The new cabinet will reflect that the 4G team is now fully in charge… while having a succession plan with office-holders at various levels," added Dr Felix Tan.

Who will be PM Wong's second right-hand man?

With DPM Heng's retirement, all eyes will be on who will be the Prime Minister's right-hand man together with DPM Gan Kim Yong.

IPS senior research fellow Gillian Koh said that one key thing to watch is whether the Prime Minister will appoint Singapore's first female Deputy Prime Minister.

"This is not because this person has to advocate for women's issues as such but to mark the fact that women have arrived as leaders in their own right, across Singapore and across domains," said Dr Koh.

Three of the 19 members of PM Wong's Cabinet are women.

They are Minister for Digital Development and Information and Second Minister for Home Affairs Josephine Teo, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office and Second Minister for National Development Indranee Rajah, as well as Grace Fu, who helms the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment, and is the minister-in-charge of trade relations.

Without naming anyone, Professor Terence Ho, adjunct associate professor in practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in the National University of Singapore, said that the new DPM may be someone who holds a security portfolio. 

He added that this is due to DPM Gan's focus on economic policy. 

For Dr Felix Tan, Minister for Education Chan Chun Sing and National Development Minister Desmond Lee are his picks as DPM.

"It may be that Gan could be appointed as a Senior Minister, rather than remain as Deputy Prime Minister," he said.

Gan, who is also Minister for Trade and Industry, was promoted as Deputy Prime Minister during a Cabinet reshuffle last May, which saw minor changes to the line-up.

That year also saw then-Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong becoming Senior Minister.   

Another potential Senior Minister in the new cabinet? K Shanmugam, said Dr Koh.

The 66-year-old entered politics in 1988 and has been overseeing home affairs and law for 10 years and 17 years respectively.

"It is also possible… he becomes Senior Minister with the duty also of being a Coordinating Minister for National Security," added Dr Koh, noting that the latter role is vacant after Teo's resignation.

However, Prof Ho pointed out that there are no suitable candidates for Senior Minister this time.

"Thus far, senior ministers have previously held the position of Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister," he added.

New Defence Minister? 

Another appointment which will give PM Wong plenty to think about is that of the Defence Minister.

While the role does not necessarily require someone with military background — take Dr Ng, who was an oncologist, for instance — Dr Felix Tan said that it would be advantageous for someone who understands and balances Singapore's security concerns with those in the region.

He added that Chan and political newcomer David Neo — both former Chiefs of Army — could be in the running for the post of Defence Minister.

"While there are many among the PAP MPs who have related experience, it is better to have someone who has a bit more distance between his time in Singapore Armed Forces before taking it on. I would not be surprised therefore if Mr Chan Chun Sing is selected to play this role by PM Wong," said Dr Koh.

New political office-holders

Observers have said it is likely that several "star catches" of the 2025 election will be appointed as political office-holders in the new Government.

During the hustings, PM Wong said Neo, Dinesh Vasu Dash from East Coast GRC, and Jeffrey Siow from Chua Chu Kang GRC could be some of the 32 new candidates who could grow into larger leadership roles.

Dinesh was formerly chief executive at the Agency for Integrated Care, and Siow was second permanent secretary for trade and industry and manpower and a previous principal private secretary to then PM Lee Hsien Loong.

Others who have been earmarked as potential office-holders are former Nominated MP Syed Harun Alhabsyi and Goh Hanyan, who was previously a director at the Ministry of Digital Development and Information.

Post-2020 General Election also saw seven of the PAP's newly elected MPs appointed as political office-holders. 

Dr Tan See Leng, for example, was made Manpower Minister as well as Second Minister for Trade and Industry, and Gan Siow Huang was appointed Minister of State for Education. 

Teo Kay Key, a research fellow at IPS Social Lab, said this may be part of PM Wong's thinking to test the newcomers or backbenchers to take up political office holder positions, to start out on developing the capabilities of the younger MPs.

Meanwhile, IPS’ Dr Tan Ern Ser said former senior civil servants and those with military background are not necessarily "shoo-ins" as political office-holders.

"Much would also depend on their performance during the GE (hustings), demonstrating their ability and aptitude for playing a political role involving a more egalitarian relationship with citizens," he added.

chingshijie@asiaone.com

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