US presidential election: Would a Trump or Harris administration favour Singapore?

As Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday (Nov 5), the world watched to see who emerged as the 47th president of the United States. 

But between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, which administration would have been more beneficial for Singapore? 

To find out how either administration would impact Singapore, AsiaOne spoke with three experts to get an insight on the two candidates' policies. 

In terms of public opinion, Associate Professor Bilveer Singh from the National University of Singapore's Political Science faculty said that most Singaporeans "will not mind" whoever wins the presidential race.

Until the new administration's policies start "biting" Singaporeans, that is.

Veteran Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani agreed that the world would be a "calmer place" if Harris won the keys to the Oval Office, Fortune reported.

"The last thing you want is an erratic leader like Donald Trump coming in," he said at the Insights Forum during the Singapore FinTech Festival on Monday.

"Instead of trying to figure out what these massive changes are and adapting to them intelligently, he wants to drive America back to the past and make America great again without making any adjustments." 

Trump's economic policies could hurt Singapore

When it comes to the Trump administration, Assoc Prof Singh expressed some concern about the 78-year-old's economic policies which are aimed at strengthening the American economy. 

During his campaign, the former president announced that he intends to impose a 10 to 20 per cent tariff on all imports, and up to 60 per cent on goods from China. 

Trump also claimed that his tariff policies will effectively lower inflation and reduce the cost of living for American families. 

Harris, on the other hand, plans to implement more targeted measures, such as export controls and subsidies for domestic manufacturing.

She also has a "Entrepreneurs & Innovators Policy Plan", which aims to support small businesses, entrepreneurs, innovation, and economic growth, reported Forbes. 

"The exponential rise of tariffs would hurt export-oriented economies like Singapore's that depend on the US market," Assoc Prof Singh said.

"Trump's tariff-driven policies could make our goods and services less competitive in the US at a time when other markets are also closing due to rising economic nationalism and deglobalisation."

Geopolitical implications

Singapore has had "excellent relations" with both the Trump and current Biden administration, noted Assistant Professor Dylan Loh from the Nanyang Technological University's School of Social Sciences in a recent article published on Asia New Zealand Foundation website.

"The previous Trump presidency did not negatively affect bilateral relations and, in fact, ties were in pretty solid state so there's no reason to think otherwise if Trump wins," he told AsiaOne.

Regardless of who won the presidential election, he does not think that either candidate's victory will affect bilateral relations between Singapore and the US. 

That being said, more stability and predictability can be expected from a successor that does not deviate markedly from the Biden presidency, Asst Prof Loh added.

Given Trump's attitude towards China, however, his policies towards the region could potentially cause some instability in the Asia Pacific — including the volatile South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, Assoc Prof Singh said.

Singapore's foreign policy could be put in a difficult position of choosing sides should states be pressured to back the US' 'containment' of China, he explained.

"As a highly vulnerable and dependent small state we remain a price taker in foreign relations with little options except to react and respond prudently for national survival," Assoc Prof Singh said. 

All things considered, Professor William Callahan, who teaches political science at the Singapore Management University, still feels that a Harris administration would be better for Singapore as she values long-term relationships with US allies and partners. 

"Trump sees foreign policy in terms of short-term transactional calculations that usually are calculated in terms of his personal ego and benefit," he told AsiaOne.

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claudiatan@asiaone.com