SINGAPORE — Singapore is forecast to have the largest share of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) in South-east Asia by 2040, according to a report from Bloomberg's energy research service BloombergNEF.  

A total of 80 per cent of all passenger vehicles here are expected to be electric by that year, compared with a regional average of 24 per cent, the report said.

Thailand, in second place, is forecast to have a 41 per cent share, followed by Vietnam (31 per cent), Indonesia (25 per cent), Malaysia (15 per cent) and the Philippines (10 per cent).

Singapore had the highest EV adoption rate among the six South-east Asian countries in 2023, according to BloombergNEF, with EVs accounting for about 19 per cent of all vehicles sold here.

In the first seven months of 2024 alone, EVs formed 32.1 per cent of new car registrations, based on data from the Land Transport Authority.

According to the BloombergNEF report released on Aug 26, the Republic also had the highest density of public EV charging stations in South-east Asia in 2023, with one charging station for every three EVs. In Thailand, there was one public charger for every 16 EVs. Malaysia had one for every 38 EVs, and Indonesia had one for every 42.

In its 2024 report on the outlook for EVs in the region, BloombergNEF said falling battery prices are "key to EV adoption".

The cost of manufacturing batteries can fluctuate depending on the availability and cost of raw materials and other components, as well as supply-and-demand factors. 

This is because batteries are the most expensive component of EVs, said Komal Kareer, the report's author.

"Falling battery prices will reduce the upfront cost of the vehicle... and make EVs competitive with gasoline(-fuelled) vehicles," said Kareer, who researches clean transport in South and South-east Asia.

She noted that a key roadblock to EV adoption is "a dearth of electric models that can compete with these prices (of fossil fuel-powered cars) as well as deliver the desired performance".

In its report, BloombergNEF predicted that battery prices would fall by 17 per cent every time the total number of batteries on the market doubles.

Between 2010 and 2023, battery pack prices fell 90 per cent.

In 2023, annual passenger EV sales in South-east Asia tripled for a second straight year, driven by supportive policies and the growing presence of Chinese carmakers in the region, which have been bolstered by subsidies and tax breaks.

For example, major Chinese automakers such as BYD, Great Wall Motor and GAC Aion have manufacturing facilities in Thailand - by far the biggest market for EVs in the region, with sales rising more than four times to 86,383 units in 2023.  

More than 153,500 passenger EVs were sold in South-east Asia in 2023, including 5,734 in Singapore. This figure includes plug-in hybrids.

Associate Professor Walter Theseira, a transport economist from the Singapore University of Social Sciences, told The Straits Times that the projection that Singapore will have by far the largest share of passenger EVs in South-east Asia by 2040 is "not extraordinary". 

"The Singapore vehicle market is quite different from that of regional countries, and there are factors here that make EV adoption much more extensive," Prof Theseira said. 

The chief reason for Singapore's increasing EV adoption rate is the certificate of entitlement system, which encourages car owners to turn in their vehicles every 10 years.

By contrast, in most other countries in the region, owners keep their cars for more than 10 years or sell them on the second-hand market until the vehicle is no longer economically viable to use, Prof Theseira said.

Coupled with policies that encourage EV adoption — for example, no new diesel-powered cars or taxis will be registered in Singapore from 2025 — it is not surprising that Singapore's EV adoption rate is much higher than the regional average, he added. 

The availability of charging infrastructure is also another factor, Prof Theseira said, though this comes with "pluses and minuses".

"Singapore is very compact; no one would seriously have 'range anxiety' in Singapore," he said, referring to the fear that an EV would run out of power.

On the other hand, most people "must rely on chargers that are controlled and installed by someone else. It depends on where you live and the surrounding infrastructure", Prof Theseira said, as "only a very small percentage of people will have the ability to install chargers in their homes".

As for the electrification of public buses, the governments of all six countries covered in BloombergNEF's report have set electric bus adoption targets, with Thailand leading the region's electric bus deployments in 2023.

The Bangkok Mass Transit Authority, a government-owned public bus company, plans to deploy 3,390 electric buses over an unspecified period, and private bus operator Thai Smile Bus holds the right to operate its electric buses on 123 routes in Bangkok, including round-the-clock services.

In 2023, Thai Smile Bus had 2,100 electric buses in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, with plans to add another 1,000 such buses in 2024.

In Jakarta, the Indonesian government plans to electrify half of its public bus fleet by 2027.

Singapore has a similar goal, with plans to have half of its 6,000 public buses running on electricity by 2030, as well as all public buses running on cleaner energy by 2040.

Malaysia's largest bus operator Rapid Bus intends to electrify 30 per cent of its fleet by 2030.

Singapore's target is for all vehicles to run on cleaner energy by 2040.

From 2030, all new car and taxi registrations must be of cleaner-energy models. Under Singapore's Green Plan, 60,000 EV charging points will be available by 2030.

This article was first published in The Straits Times. Permission required for reproduction.