Are we in a property buyer's or seller's market?

It's almost as if the universe wants to perfectly balance the forces that push property prices up, as well as down; so I'm not surprised that 2024 has been called both a buyer's market and a seller's market, depending on where you're standing.

First, Core Central Region (CCR) prices are coming down, due to recent cooling measures. Look at recent discounts offered at developments like Cuscaden Reserve, where units are going for $2,900 psf, down from a range of $3,400 to $3,800 psf of units that were previously sold. This is the big chance for you to grab one at a lower price. On the other hand, sky-high interest rates, a high quantum, and economic headwinds mean most of us get to sit on our hands and watch this opportunity fly by. 

Second, HDB prices grew at double-digit rates in the aftermath of Covid. Comparing the price difference between the 2013 peak and today is like comparing a partially trampled anthill to Mount Everest. However, private property prices grew even faster, thus widening the gap despite the resale flats' performance. 

Now bear in mind the double-digit price growth for resale flats can't be sustained; and it's already starting to level off. So it's likely that aspiring upgraders will have to struggle even harder to bridge that gap in the coming years. 

Third, the creation of the Plus and Prime schemes have kicked in: now the people who don't want to upgrade won't be competing with the people who do (because if you do want to upgrade, you won't buy a flat that you can only resell in around 14 years. At the rate we're going, the price of a two-bedder might be enough to fund a small colony on Mars by then.)

Fourth, you probably heard there's something of an apocalypse happening in the tech industry. Layoffs, combined with growing concerns of the wider economy, may finally lead to a slowdown in private housing prices - and we may even see some of that demand channeled into a more affordable market, like Malaysia. Under normal circumstances, the unaffected Singaporeans might hail this as an opportunity. 

But then again, the affected workers, thanks to their now-lower income, may shift their gaze toward the cheaper resale condo market. (As we explain in this article, the gap between new launch and resale condos has become quite large). Rising demand in the resale segment may not bode well for the median-income upgrader, who is also largely priced out of new launch family units. 

And while job losses or pay cuts could mean some are forced to sell, this is also counterbalanced by our debt ratios and savings. Limits like the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR), coupled with CPF savings that can be used to service housing loans, could mean that even recently retrenched are not desperate to sell.

And psychologically, we're just not wired to accept losing money on property as a "thing." So there's no guarantee that we'll see fire sales and discounts; especially not if they can turn to rental to offset the costs. 

Which leads us to the final issue: rental income has improved, not least due to the government allowing up to eight unrelated tenants (up from six). But while rental income has risen (but recent accounts point to a weakening market), so have interest rates and property taxes; so yet another scenario with bad news counterbalancing good news (for landlords in this case). 

Everything looks like it's precariously balanced on a see-saw* right now, so I refuse to rush into deciding whether this is really a buyer's or seller's market just yet.

*Bonus tip: You can look for see-saws on a playground to guess the age of a development. They were more popular in the '00s and earlier. In more recent decades, playground designers have become convinced that see-saws, like swings, are basically machines designed to concuss children. Maybe that's why our ghost stories keep involving them.

Weekly sales roundup (Feb 26 – March 3)

Top 5 most expensive new sales (by project)

Top 5 cheapest new sales (by project)

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
LENTORIA	$1,185,000	538	$2,202	99 yrs
THE MYST	$1,221,000	517	$2,363	99 yrs (2023)
PINETREE HILL	$1,267,000	538	$2,354	99 yrs (2022)
THE ARDEN	$1,327,000	721	$1,840	99 yrs (2023)
GRAND DUNMAN	$1,405,000	549	$2,559	99 yrs (2022)

Top 5 most expensive resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
THE ORCHARD RESIDENCES	$6,900,000	2174	$3,173	99 yrs (2006)
ST MARTIN RESIDENCE	$5,000,000	2982	$1,677	FH
LEONIE GARDENS	$4,608,888	2540	$1,814	99 yrs (1990)
YONG AN PARK	$4,200,000	1765	$2,379	FH
CHANCERY PARK	$4,100,000	2379	$1,724	FH

Top 5 cheapest resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
THE HILLFORD	$713,000	506	$1,409	60 yrs (2013)
CENTRA SUITES	$722,000	452	$1,597	FH
RIVERBANK @ FERNVALE	$730,000	495	$1,474	99 yrs (2013)
TRE RESIDENCES	$780,000	420	$1,858	99 yrs (2014)
RIPPLE BAY	$800,000	538	$1,486	99 yrs (2011)

Top 5 biggest winners

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
LEONIE GARDENS	$4,608,888	2540	$1,814	$2,408,888	17 Years
CHANCERY PARK	$4,100,000	2379	$1,724	$2,300,000	18 Years
THE SEA VIEW	$3,600,000	1410	$2,553	$1,978,500	16 Years
EDELWEISS PARK CONDOMINIUM	$2,138,000	2465	$867	$1,383,000	17 Years
VALLEY PARK	$3,070,000	1356	$2,264	$1,370,000	17 Years

Top 5 biggest losers

PROJECT NAME	PRICE S$	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
LUMIERE	$1,150,000	678	$1,696	-$260,240	11 Year
VIDA	$1,100,000	527	$2,086	-$68,000	9 Years
THE FORESTA @ MOUNT FABER	$1,360,000	667	$2,038	$30,000	8 Years
BUKIT 828	$880,000	506	$1,739	$72,000	4 Years
TRE RESIDENCES	$780,000	420	$1,858	$72,900	9 Years

Transaction breakdown

ALSO READ: Can you afford to upgrade to a condo in 2024?

This article was first published in Stackedhomes.