Climate set to warm by 3.1 deg C without greater action, UN report warns

TORONTO — Current climate policies will result in global warming of more than 3 deg C by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report on Oct 24, more than twice the rise agreed to nearly a decade ago.

The annual Emissions Gap report, which takes stock of countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, finds the world faces as much as 3.1 deg C of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if governments do not take greater action to slash planet-warming emissions.

Governments in 2015 signed up to the Paris Agreement and a cap of 1.5 deg C warming to prevent a cascade of dangerous impacts. 

"We're teetering on a planetary tight rope," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a speech on Oct 24. "Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster".

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3 per cent between 2022 and 2023, to a new high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the report said. 

Under current pledges to take future action, temperatures would still rise between 2.6 deg C and 2.8 deg C by 2100, the report found. That is in line with findings from the past three years. 

"If we look at the progress towards 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states... they have not made a lot of progress towards their current climate targets for 2030," said Ms Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report.

The world has currently warmed by about 1.3 deg C.

Nations will gather in November at the annual United Nations climate summit in Azerbaijan, where they will work to build on an agreement made in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels.

Negotiations in Baku will help to inform each country's updated emissions-cutting strategy, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which are due in February 2025.

The report suggests that nations must collectively commit to and implement a cut of 42 per cent on yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and reach 57 per cent by 2035 for any hope of preventing warming beyond 1.5 deg C — a target now seen as likely out of reach. 

Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, urged countries to use the Baku talks to increase action in their NDCs. "Every fraction of a degree avoided counts," she said.

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