Sometimes, condos that had bad sales launches or were bought at price peaks look like a bad investment; but sometimes with real estate, the key is holding power. Keep it long enough, and there can be a turnaround in performance.

This can be due to various reasons. A pandemic-induced demand for housing, a change in demand for certain unit types (for example, larger units), or even changes in the area like the arrival of higher-priced new launch condos.

From the end of the last financial crisis to the recent pandemic, we've seen how quickly the market can take a U-turn in a year or two, and along with it the performances of various resale condos. Here are some projects that struggled in earlier years, but have since taken off in a more positive way:

1. Tree House

Tree House is a Guinness World Record holder: it's the largest vertical garden (2,289 sq m of green surface) in the world.

When it was launched in 2010, it was the greenest project in Singapore — it even had its preview launch on Earth Day, when it sold out 85 per cent of 350 available units.

At the time, one of the unique selling points was a claim that the building saved around $500,000 a year in energy and water costs. This wasn't just due to the vertical garden, but also because it was one of the first projects to heavily feature installations like heat-reducing windows.

This 429-unit, leasehold condo saw its biggest losses in the run-up from 2012 to 2017, which is largely due to the property market falling off its 2013 peak.

A transaction in December 2014, which recorded a loss of $250,000 in a period of less than two years, skewed the average downward in that period. The situation subsequently improved, with Tree House showing 268 profitable transactions to 13 losses, and recent losses have also been less severe.

As of today, Tree House is mainly prized by nature lovers, for its location between Chestnut and Dairy Farm Nature Parks.

This location can rival the greenery of Bukit Timah, but at much lower prices: an 861 sq ft unit at Tree House can transact for as low as around $1.2 million, well within the comfort zone of HDB upgraders and even some first-timers.

The "drawback" is the seclusion and distance from malls and MRT stations. For the demographic that Tree House targets, however, this is probably a feature, not a bug.

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2. Urban Vista

Urban Vista is still in the process of turning around. This 582-unit leasehold condo, located near the Tanah Merah MRT station (EWL), saw a confluence of several issues in its early years.

First, the decline from the 2013 peak impacted the condo even during initial developer sales:

From the Square Foot data, prices went from a median of $1,503 psf during the property peak in 2013, to just $1,217 psf at the end of developer sales in May 2014.

Subsequently, Urban Vista saw a painful track record of 74 profitable transactions to 68 unprofitable ones. Losses seem to stem mainly from the buyers in the earlier buyers, who purchased too close to the peak.

The second issue that Urban Vista had was the end of the shoebox craze. The idea of buying and renting out one-bedders for investment was raging hot in the years leading up to 2013.

Urban Vista, with its many small loft units, had layouts that were no longer in vogue as the market softened toward 2017.

This was also further compounded by other launches in the area, such as the attractively-priced Grandeur Park Residences.

There is a turnaround creeping in, however, like the latest transaction in May this year, which saw a $180,000 profit after just three years.

Speculatively, this could be related to interest in Tanah Merah being reignited by the new Seneca Residence. The introduction of new amenities via Sceneca Residence, coupled with Sceneca's $2,068+ psf price point, may have caused buyers to look at neighbouring resale options with new interest.

Urban Vista, along with condos like The Tanamera and Optima, may have seen a boost from this.

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3. D'leedon

D'leedon was a rather bold move from the start: a leasehold mega-development (1,715 units) within the Farrer/Holland V area.

To understand why this sticks out, you need to consider that Holland V has a lot of freehold condos (which makes leasehold look worse in contrast), and is a prime area: this is the kind of location where people usually expect exclusivity and small units counts, not a mega-development. 

Also note that at the time of its launch in November 2010, D'Leedon was the largest private condo Singapore had ever seen (now surpassed by Treasure at Tampines).

This resulted in several disgruntled comments on the ground, and it was believed that investors would shun the condo due to excessive competition. By today's standards, when we have Treasure at Tampines with over 2,200+ units, that sounds amusing — but it was taken quite seriously at the time.

This resulted in a somewhat shaky start, and among the initial buyers — who perhaps weren't sure what sort of a price was right — there were some losses (350 profitable to 25 losing transactions).

Today though, D'leedon is one of the best-known options near Holland V, and concerns over its size have mostly been handwaved.

A key part of this boils down to the strong location: you can walk to Farrer Road MRT (CCL) from D'leedon, which puts you one stop from Holland V and two stops from One-North.

As the One-North tech hub continues to grow, the rising demand for nearby accommodation could balance out D'leedon's unit count. (Let's not forget the proximity of primary schools like Nanyang).

Also since the pandemic, there has been a clear demand for mega-developments. Whether it be because of the level of the range of facilities, or the space within the grounds, it is now a popular choice among Singaporeans — especially for families with children.

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4. Palm Gardens

Palm Gardens is a 694-unit, leasehold condo near Keat Hong LRT (this links up to Choa Chu Kang MRT station (NSL, JRL). This is an older condo, completed in 2000; but it is quite well maintained for its age. 

Palm Gardens seems to have been under the radar for most of its existence. It's in a convenient if not particularly exciting part of Choa Chu Kang. Keat Hong LRT provides quick access to Lot One and the CCK MRT station, so the hub of the neighbourhood is within easy reach if you don't mind needing an LRT connection.

In the future, Choa Chu Kang West on the Jurong Region line would be nearer but still require a bit of a walk. In any case, the HDB enclave at Keat Hong is well developed, with a good assortment of coffee shops, minimarts, and other heartland amenities; and the CCK Market and Hawker Centre are also within walking distance. 

Note that while Palm Gardens never quite stood out, its performance is far from bad — 134 profitable transactions, with just seven losses.

But while it's been unremarkable in the past, it may be back in the limelight due to size and affordability. The three-bedders here are a generous 1,200+ sq ft, and transact at just around $1.28 million ($1,062 psf).

Impressive for sellers, many of whom once bought at $600 to $700 psf, and impressive to buyers, who would pay about twice the price for a new three-bedder today (if they can even find one that's as spacious). The renewed interest is likely to continue, and to keep pushing up the resale price.

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5. Q Bay Residences

Q Bay Residences, along with its neighbours Santorini and The Alps, were once considered ulu despite being in the mature Tampines area. This is mostly because most people think of Tampines Hub (the area with the MRT station, malls, and offices) when the neighbourhood is mentioned. 

But Q Bay Residences is close to the point where Bedok meets Tampines (Tampines West). In stark contrast to Tampines Hub, this is a very green area. Tampines Quarry and Bedok Reservoir are nearby, making it quite an outdoorsy space. 

Q Bay Residences is a leasehold, 630-unit condo that capitalises on the scenery, as well as its proximity to Temasek Polytechnic. And while it's too far to walk to the MRT, there's a bus stop just outside with services like 23, which go to Tampines MRT (DTL, EWL) and the hub. So if you don't mind needing a bus connection, this is a much more convenient place than it appears on paper.

Earlier losses at this condo are likely due to its launching at a market peak. This was visible even from developer launch prices:

Prices were at $1,012 psf during the high point of 2013, tapering off to $900 psf at the end of developer sales in 2014. Subsequently, prices took a while to recover. Nonetheless, Q Bay now has 153 profitable transactions to just 14 losses. 

Q Bay is on the uptick though, and there was a notable transaction in April this year with a $295,000 profit over just 3.4 years. As the Tampines West area sees more development, and homeowners start to associate Tampines with more than just the hub, resale condos here will likely start to draw more interest. 

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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.